Effect of Rising Interest Rates on Commercial Real Estate

We admit it is dangerous territory to talk about rising interest rates, especially when predicting a potential up or down movement. We have not come anywhere close to the topic over years of participation within the commercial real estate sector.

Around 2005, there was heightened speculation that interest rates would rise and the undoing of commercial real estate would begin. It never happened. Seven years later some of those same properties are trading at double that of 2005 prices.

So, why are we touching on this subject today, especially given the number of forecasters whose speculative predictions became fodder for news pundits and critics? Well, with the stock market improving without real improvement in bond yields, due in part to the Fed buying bonds and keeping rates artificially low, one of two things will likely occur; the stock market will drop or treasury yields (and their correlation to interest rates) will move higher, or both. Both should be moving in relative tandem, yet, they are not. There are several factors that we have explored that explain this phenomenon, but we will stick with what we know.

Interest Rates and Their Correlation to Commercial Real Estate

Interest rates are percentage rates at which interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money that they borrow from a lender. When speaking about the potential for rising interest rates in the future, we should mention their impact on capitalization (cap) rates, a simple measure of return that fuels commercial real estate investment decisions and demand. Similar to interest rates, a cap rate is a percentage of yield that an investor seeks when purchasing a rented property, along with the property itself. To simplify, total the income from the tenant(s), subtract the expenses of operating the property; you get X. Now, determine the price that you are willing to pay for the property; you get Y. Z is the cap rate.

X divided by Y = Z (convert to percentage, ie. .0845 = 8.45% cap rate). This is the annual percentage yield that an investor expects to earn by investing in the entire property with tenant. The longer the lease and/or strength of the tenant, the lower the cap rate and higher the price an investor is willing to pay.

If you were to observe a historical chart that featured treasury bond yields, a leading indicator of interest rates and then cap rates, you would notice that these move in succession, one following the last. From beginning to end, the move may take 3-4 years. With any sudden jolt to lending rates based on poor economic circumstances, historically it takes a longer period of time for investor cap rates to catch up. Because we suffered through the worst recession since the Great Depression, along with the banks reluctance to move assets off the balance sheet and investor demand very weak, cap rates are still in limbo.

This said, with interest rates at all time lows, asking prices, and their correlation with cap rates, sit at levels where most real estate investors (and some banks) just aren’t comfortable. Now the US has found its footing, will investment demand might switch roles and lead interest rates higher? We think so!

Whether you believe the government response to the panic was appropriate or not, we feel if distressed properties were released shortly after the 2008 stock market collapse, cap rates would have climbed higher as fewer investors would be bidding. This would have created the commercial real estate “shoe to drop” and ultimately led to a significant US economic restructuring and global depression.

By controlling the process, the Fed has essentially allowed national and global participants the time to multiply to create enough demand so that economy and commercial real estate stabilizes and leads interest rates in the future. So, and as the Fed indicated, they will keep fed funds rate low until 2014; no big deal. Global investment demand will determine where we go from here and it is guaranteed that mortgage interest rates will begin their rise this year.

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Medical Office Performance Update

Understanding the advantages of a medical office property can provide stability to an otherwise risky real estate investment portfolio. The uniqueness of this commercial property type makes it a favorable investment, especially throughout ‘down’ economic cycles when stability, rather than overexposure, is sought to balance a portfolio. This, as evidenced by investments in 2008 and 2009, a few of the strongest years for medical office investment in decades and, notably, the worst for other commercial sectors happens to be the most recent phenomenon.

As for today, when greater threats appear to loom on the horizon and political strife sits at its highest plateau, and as office and industrial properties attract greater attention due to an improved economic position in the U.S., the healthcare sector’s investment has seen a moderate decline in volume of transactions. Most experts suggest that early-to-mid 2013 will see a resurgence of capital into the medical office property as hospitals seek to monetize real estate to offset costs associated with administrative growth, a precursor to healthcare reform.

So, depending on the current status of the property, and given a 12-month window with which to lease, redevelop or stabilize the property, the direction chosen today will likely determine if the property has the potential of resale during the next cycle.

What should you be familiar?

It starts with our research. Keen insight begins with dedicated research resources that provide for the persistent investigation into changes in physical relocation and current and future regulatory implementation. Our employed fact-finding & intelligence unit corroborates their mined data with paid, less reliable online resources and government data. While the cost of obtaining information remains high when paired to its return on investment, the overall collaboration of multiple data channels remains essential for the specialist whose clients require the most candid data for appurtenant decision-making.  So, investigation into your premises is a first step to understanding potential referral patterns and tenant mix to maximize valuation.

Second, and of greater importance to sale of the asset, the medical office opportunity should have a hospital nearby that demonstrates economic strength mainly through specialized services that provide for in-house referrals, physician growth and collaboration. Orthopedic, Cardiology, Women’s Services and Gamma Knife procedures have been lucrative hospital services and, in turn, have provided for higher effective rental structures throughout these medical office buildings. While a property will fluctuate in transacted sales price, such services attract higher capital investment because of hospital’s strength from physician services and specialties. Thus, you can see where healthcare reform, and its proposed focus on volume, rather than profitability, has the potential to water down hospital revenues and, ultimately, potential sales prices.

Another factor to consider is the area’s residential growth of the 3-mile radius. What is the rent to own ratio? Younger or older demographics? Household income? Over the past few years, investment has sought properties that provide for economic stability through employment and demographic growth. This trend will continue until it is known whether healthcare reform provides to be a viable investment alternative or an epic failure in a time of the state’s and nation’s budgetary complications. Remember, older and wealthier populations still utilize the majority of healthcare services and are more likely to see a physician out of want, rather than need, which will continue to guide investment.

When analyzing how a medical office property will/can perform, it is essential to seek guidance from a qualified professional team dedicated to the industry.  Our associates maintain years of exceptional, professional service to the Texas medical communities and with an expansive proprietary database, widely recognized as the best in the business, we hope you will seek out our firm for your medical office building needs.

This post was written by Robert S. “Bob” Lowery, Managing Partner of MREA | Medical Real Estate Advisors.

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